April St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the April 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce and Polk, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 3.0 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.61 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March, and the unemployment rate, at 8.2 percent, is 0.7 percentage points below the March 2011 rate. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality, but there were job losses in retail trade. The public sector was relatively unchanged posting a loss of about 1,000 jobs.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9 percent, in February, which was caused by a 0.2 percent increase in employment and 0.2 percent increase in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 16,900 jobs over the last year. This indicates that while the labor market conditions have improved in Wisconsin, that improvement has been driven by growth in neighboring states.

Minnesota’s unemployment rate was up slightly to 5.7 percent, in February, which was lead by a 0.2 percent decrease in employment and a 0.1 percent decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. Minnesota has gained 35,500 jobs over the last year, according to the establishments survey.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.38 percent in February ‘12, and Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.51 percent over next the six months, which is still too low to expect meaningful labor market recovery. The Minnesota economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.66 percent, and the Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.89 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy gained 1,000 jobs on net in the month of February but has lost 16,900 jobs since February ’11. The Minnesota economy gained 6,200 jobs on net in February and has gained 35,500 over the last year.

The month of February had very minor job losses or gains in almost all sectors. Wisconsin had job losses in the public sector of 1,100 jobs in February and has lost 17,400 jobs over the last year. Minnesota had job gains in the public sector of 2,500 jobs, but has also lost some 6,200 jobs over the last year.

In Wisconsin, there were gains in construction, manufacturing, information, financial activities, professional and business services, education and health services and other services. The largest gains for Wisconsin came in construction which added 2,300 jobs and education and health services which added 2,600 jobs.

In Minnesota there were gains in mining and logging, construction, information, education and health services, leisure and hospitality and other services. The largest job gains were in education and health services which added 5,100 jobs, also leisure and hospitality, and construction both added 1,300 jobs.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in February by 0.3 percentage point to 6.5 percent, lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 6.9 percent, greater than the Minnesota average of 5.7, and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 6.2 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength due to proximity to the twin cities.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of January but increased for Minneapolis. Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past nine months. Median home price and number of homes sold both increased for the month of March. Over the last year median home price and number of homes sold have increased by 0.7 percent and 17.9 percent respectively.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the April edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

March St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the March 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce and Polk, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 3.0 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.63 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, is 0.7 percentage points below the February 2011 rate. Job gains occurred in professional and businesses services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining. The public sector remained unchanged in February, although the public sector in 2011 lost an average of 22,000 jobs per month.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 6.9 percent, in January, which was lead by a 0.1 percent increase in employment and 0.1 percent decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, Wisconsin lost 12,500 jobs during the year of 2011. This indicates that while the labor market conditions have improved in Wisconsin, that improvement has been driven by growth in neighboring states.

Minnesota’s unemployment rate was also down slightly to 5.6 percent, in January, which was lead by a minor decrease in employment and a 0.2 present decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. Minnesota gained 15,500 jobs, according to the establishments survey.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.6 percent in January ‘12, and Leading Index is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.95 percent over next the six months, which is too low to expect meaningful labor market recovery. The Minnesota economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.88 percent, and the Leading Index is predicting a negative annual growth rate of 0.88 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy gained 12,500 jobs on net in the month of January but lost 12,500 jobs over 2011. The Minnesota economy gained 15,500 jobs on net in January and gained 35,800 over the last year.

Job losses occurred in a few areas, but overall most sectors grew during the month of January. Wisconsin and Minnesota both had job losses in the public sector of 3,200 and 1,700 respectively.

 

In Wisconsin, there were gains in mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, trade, transportation and utilities, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitability. The largest gains for Wisconsin came in construction which added 4,200 jobs and trade transportation and utilities which added 3,700 jobs.

In Minnesota there were gains in mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, information, professional and business services, education and health services and other services. The largest job gains were in professional and business services which added 5,600 jobs and construction which added 4,200 jobs.

Conditions in the new regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in December by 0.25 percentage point to 5.6 percent, lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 7.0 percent, and comparable the Minnesota average of 5.7, and Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.2 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the twin cities. 

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of November but increased for Minneapolis. for the first time in four months. Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past eight months. Median home price decreased in the region for the month of February and number of homes sold increased in the region for the month of February. Number of homes sold was 19.5 percent higher than one year ago and Median home price is 4.1 percent lower than one year ago. 

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the March edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

February St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the February 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 2.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011, up 0.40 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate, at 8.3 percent, continued to trend down. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining. The public sector, though, continued its downward tend, losing 14,000 jobs in January, and public sector job losses remain a significant short-run threat to continued recovery.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.1 percent, in December, which was lead by a 0.2 percent increase in employment and a very minor decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households. However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 1,700 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.43 percent, and the Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a negative .51 percent growth rate over the next year. The Coincident and Leading indices peeked in March ’11 and January ’11, respectively.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy lost 1,700 jobs on net in December, and has gained only 3,200 jobs over the last year.

Job losses occurred in many sectors, but a few sectors saw strong growth. The public sector gained 2,200 jobs, the first gain in 5 months. Manufacturing also grew by 3,300 jobs, along with trade, transportation & utilities sector gaining 2,700 jobs, and construction gaining 1,900 jobs. All other sectors of the economy lost jobs with the leisure and hospitality sector losing the most at 6,100 jobs. Overall the private sector lost 3,900 jobs and the public sector gained 2,200 jobs.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate rose in December by 0.37 percentage point to 5.9 percent, lower than the state average of 7.1 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.5 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the twin cities.

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Chicago and nationally decreased for the month of November. The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis increased for the month of November for the first time in four months. Nationally the home price index has decreased every one of the past seven months. Median home price increased and number of homes sold decreased in the region for the month of January. Number of homes sold was 6.7 percent lower than one year ago and Median home price is 8.7 percent higher than one year ago.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the February edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

The Federal Open market committee concluded its meeting January 25 without any change in short term interest rate policy. They stated that this will continue this policy for three years (2014). A statement of policy three years in advance is unprecedented and it is more likely that this is simply a statement that the Fed sees this policy continuing indefinitely, until economic recovery gains strength. In addition, they have signaled a new round of quantitative easing. This is an aggressive purchase of bonds in an attempt to lower long term interest rates and spur the economy. 

There was more disagreement among the policy makers than usual as six individuals at the meeting expressed a desire for interest rates to begin to increase this year.

Economic growth expectations have been slightly decreased to 2.2% – 2.7% and they believe the recovery faces significant risks. But, inflation seems to be well under control.

While low interest rates are thought to be necessary to encourage investment by business and new housing starts, there is an important negative consequence of the low interest rate policy. Individuals who have saved for retirement and depend upon income for bonds and bank CDs have little or no return on their saving.

It is important to understand that the time period for this policy announcement is very unusual. The assumption that the FED is able to forecast economic conditions far into the future and conduct policy today to have desirable impact in that distant future is questioned by most economists. It is unlikely that the forecasting is that accurate, so we should all place little confidence in the stated policy of no change in interest rate policy for two to three years in the future. Anything beyond late 2012 is at best a guess.

January St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the January 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the three county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

Nationally, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annually rate of 1.8 percent during the third quarter of 2011, up .48 percentage points from the previous quarter. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, at 8.5 percent, continued to trend down. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining. The public sector, though, continued its downward tend, losing 12,000 jobs in December.

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was down slightly to 7.3 percent, in November, which was lead by a 0.3 percent increase in employment and a very minor decrease in labor force, according to the BLS survey of households.  However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 14,600 jobs. It is not uncommon for theses two surveys to conflict slightly because they are measuring different aspects of the economy. The household survey focuses on people living in the state, thus for calculating the unemployment rate we use household survey data. The employer survey focuses on people working in the state, thus we use employer survey data to calculate job creation. 

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the state economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.56 percent.  The Philadelphia Fed’s Leading Index is predicting a positive 0.29 percent growth rate over the next year.  Although a 0.29 percent increase is quite small, it is an improvement over the negative growth rates that have been predicted over the last few months.  The Coincident and Leading indices peeked in March ’11 and January ’11, respectively.

Labor Market

The Wisconsin economy lost 14,600 jobs on net in November, and has gained only 4,500 jobs over the last year.  Job losses occurred in nearly sectors all, with the exception of Other Services. The public sector lost an additional 2,900 jobs, manufacturing lost 3,100 jobs, trade, transportation & utilities lost 3,300 jobs, and health and education services sector lost 1,300 jobs.  Overall, the private sector lost 11,700 jobs.    

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the state average. The regional unemployment rate held steady in November at 5.5 percent, lower than the state average of 7.3 percent and comparable to the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. The St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength, as compared to the rest of the state, appears to be driven by close proximity to the twin cities.   

Housing Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price index for Minneapolis, Chicago and nationally all decreased for the month of October, continuing a downward trend they have maintained for the past 3 months.  Median home price decreased and number of homes sold increased slightly in the region.  Number of homes sold was 12.4 percent higher than one year ago.  Median home price is 10.1 percent lower than one year ago.  The housing market looks to continue its winter slumber as the weather gets colder.

Wisconsin's St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, and Pierce counties. All three counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Two of the three counties, St. Croix and Pierce, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the January edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.