St. Croix Valley Dashboard for December 2012 Released

St. Croix Valley Dashboard for December 2012 Released

The UW-River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the latest edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the seven county St. Croix Valley. It presents the latest available data^* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

What's New

You may have noticed that the CER website has undergone some significant renovation. Some of the key features are new data tables and plots, links to download the data behind every table and links to embed the tables and plots on your own website. The website has also been reorganized to make navigation easier. The redesign of the CER site is just the beginning of a series of improvements, so keep checking back for new features.

Be sure to take a look at the Regional Economic Database available at http://www.uwrf.edu/CenterForEconomicResearch/RegionalData.cfm. The database has been reorganized by geographic region so you can easily download data on a particular topic for an entire region.

The US Economy

Output. The United States' economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter). Real GDP increased by 2.4 percent since one year previous. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment.^† The Philadelphia Fed Leading Economic Activity Index is forecasting that the national economy will grow at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5 over the next six months.

Labor Market. Total nonfarm employment rose by 146,000 in November and the unemployment rate decreased to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Key sectors of increased employment where retail trade, professional and business services, and health care. For more information about the national labor market see BLS Employment Situation Report.

Minnesota and Wisconsin

According to the latest Establishments Survey data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Wisconsin and Minnesota economies both lost jobs on net in October 2012. Wisconsin lost 7,500 jobs and Minnesota lost 8,100 jobs. Over the previous 12 months, Wisconsin has lost 10,500 jobs and Minnesota has gained 34,000 jobs. Both states unemployment rates fell in the month of October, to 6.9 percent in Wisconsin and 5.8 percent in Minnesota. Both are below the national average of 7.7 percent.

In October, Wisconsin saw job creation in construction (up 700 jobs), manufacturing (up 500 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (up 900 jobs). Wisconsin lost jobs in all other categories with the private sector losing 6,000 jobs and government losing 1,500 jobs. Minnesota gained in mining (up 200 jobs), construction (up 1,200 jobs), transportation (up 400 jobs) and information (up 800 jobs). Other sectors declined or stayed constant. Minnesota lost 5,600 private sector jobs and 2,500 government jobs.

The Valley

Labor Market. The October unemployment rate in the St. Croix Valley, at 5.3 percent, remains below both the Wisconsin and Minnesota averages and is 0.27 percentage points below one year previous. Total employment (Households Survey) continued the upward trend it began in January adding 3,262 jobs since October 2011. The labor force has also grown modestly, indicating that the St. Croix Valley is continuing to experience slow but steady recovery in the job market.

Housing Market. The housing market in the St. Croix Valley showing signs of stabilization. The latest release of the Case-Shiller Home Price index indicates that, in September 2012, home prices had risen in the Minneapolis MSA by 3.3 percent since one year previous. Moreover, both median home price and number of homes sold increased in November as compared to one year previous.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on this edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

^*Please note that most regional data is only available with a one to two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

^†Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) refers to the to market value of all final good purchased by consumers. Private Inventory investment refers to usiness spending on goods intended for sale, as well as the purchas of new housing.

Fed Watch

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Wednesday September 24 with continuation of Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist.

The FOMC statement includes the following.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable ...

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. ...

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015. ... ¹

The Fed has decided to continue its unprecedented expansionary policy for the indefinite future. The purchase of securities and the lengthening of the maturity of securities held (operation twist) are expected to begin to have a bigger impact on spending, income and employment.

There is some evidence that that the housing market is beginning to expand. When housing prices begin to move up, we can again begin to see consumer wealth increasing and with it increased spending. This change is welcomed and may signal the end of the slow recovery. The disastrous loss of wealth for middle income America has been one of the most important reasons for the slow recovery. Good times ahead? Perhaps we will see faster growth of the economy, unless inflation appears or international economic conditions continue to deteriorate.

1. FOMC policy statement http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20121024a.htm

St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard October

St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

 
The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the October 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce, Polk and Dunn, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

The U.S. seasonally adjusted annually growth rate for the second quarter of 2012 was revised to 1.3 percent, which was 1.22 percentage points lower than one year previous. The national unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, down 1.3 percent from a year ago. The national inflation rate increased .27 percentage points from last month and is down 2.07 percentage point from last year.

In Wisconsin, nonfarm payroll employment increased in August, but has decreased by .2 percent from a year ago. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points from a year ago to 7.5 percent, and has increased 0.2 percentage points from last month, according to the BLS survey of households. 

The BLS survey of households finds that Wisconsin has gained 6,582 jobs over the last year.  However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 4,400 jobs over the last year.  The two surveys seem to indicate that much of improvement in the Wisconsin labor market is driven by job creation in neighboring states, not within Wisconsin.

 

Minnesota’s unemployment rate in August was 5.9 percent, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than one year previous. The BLS survey of employers finds that Minnesota has gained 22,600 jobs over the last year. 

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of .0.26 percent in August , and the Leading Index is predicting .77 percent growth over next the six months. The Minnesota economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of .46 percent, but the Leading Index for Minnesota is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.42 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

Nationally, we have seen steady, albeit slow, improvement in the labor market. The national economy has added a total of 1,806,000 jobs year to date.

The Wisconsin economy lost 7,800 jobs net from July to August and has gained 4,400 jobs since August 2011. The Minnesota economy lost 2,000 jobs net from July to August and has gained 22,600 jobs since August 2011.

           

In August, Wisconsin lost jobs in construction, information, professional & business services, education and health services, leisure & hospitality and government. The most significant job losses came in manufacturing sector (4,500 jobs lost) and trade, transportation and utilities (2,000 jobs lost). Minnesota saw gains in 4 sectors sectors and decreases 7 sectors.  The most significant losses coming in manufacturing sector (2,700 jobs lost) and trade transportation and utilities (3,400 jobs lost.) 

        

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the Wisconsin state average. The regional unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.9 percent in the month of August and it remains lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 7.5 percent, and is the same as the Minnesota average of 5.9 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength is due to its proximity to the twin cities.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the October edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Thursday September 13 by doubling down on Quantitative Easing.

The FOMC statement includes the following.

The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative . . .

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015. ¹

1. FOMC policy statement http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm

This significant expansion of quantitative easing with new purchases of mortgage-backed securities and the continuation of operation twist with purchases of long term securities as short term securities mature is an unprecedented step by the fed to stimulate the economy. It will undoubtedly be criticized by those who believe that continued purchases of securities will have little impact on production and employment, while threatening future inflation. It will also receive criticism as inappropriate in the election cycle. But, Chair Bernanke seems committed to continuation of this aggressive monetary policy, especially in light of the complete inability of the Federal Government to conduct spending and tax changes to stimulate the economy.

I am confident the Fed is not conducting policy to impact the election results. The research on this topic is convincing. The Fed protects its independent status by avoiding any partisan policy decisions.

 
Will it work? That is a much more difficult question to answer as it requires an assumption of what would have happened without the quantitative easing. The research indicates that there is an impact of monetary policy on production and employment, but that impact is not permanent. It seems Chair Bernanke is signaling that the Fed believes any impact is worth the risk.

St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard Released

The UW- River Falls Center for Economic Research (CER) in partnership with St. Croix Economic Development Corporation (SCEDC) has released the September 2012 edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard 2.0. The dashboard is a snapshot of the economic condition of the labor, consumer and housing markets in the six county St. Croix Valley, which now includes the Wisconsin counties St. Croix, Pierce, Polk and Dunn, as well as the Minnesota counties Chisago, Ramsey and Washington. It presents the latest available data* in one convenient package and can be viewed on the CER's website at www.uwrf.edu/cer.

State and National Indicators

The U.S. seasonally adjusted annually growth rate for the second quarter of 2012 was revised to 1.7 percent, which 0.75 percentage points lower than one year previous. The national unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in August, down one percent from a year ago.

In Wisconsin, nonfarm payroll employment increased in July, by 0.7 percent from a year ago. The unemployment rate declined 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 7.3 percent, but has increased 0.3 percentage points from last month, according to the BLS survey of households. 

The BLS survey of households finds that Wisconsin has gained 19,202 jobs over the last year.  However, the BLS survey of employers finds that Wisconsin lost 21,900 jobs over the last year.  The two surveys seem to indicate that much of improvement in the Wisconsin labor market is driven by job creation in neighboring states, not within Wisconsin.

 

Minnesota’s unemployment rate in July was 5.8 percent, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than one year previous. The BLS survey of employers finds that Minnesota has gained 56,700 jobs over the last year. 

The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index of economic activity indicated the Wisconsin economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of .0.96 percent in July , and the Leading Index is predicting essentially zero growth over next the six months. The Minnesota economy contracted at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.70 percent, but the Leading Index for Minnesota is predicting a positive annual growth rate of 1.36 percent over next the six months.

Labor Market

The nationally we have seen steady, albeit slow, improvement in the labor market. The national economy has added a total of 1,808,000 jobs year to date.

The Wisconsin economy lost 6,500 jobs net from June to July and has lost 21,900 jobs since July 2011. The Minnesota economy gained 6,800 jobs net from June to July and has gained 56,700 jobs since July 2011.

    

In July, Wisconsin lost jobs in all major sectors but three, other services, information and manufacturing. The most significant job losses came in the leisure and hospitality sector (5,300 jobs lost) and education and health services (2,000 jobs lost). Minnesota fared much better with increases in 6 major sectors and significant decreases in only 2 sectors.

Conditions in the regional labor market are fairing better than the Wisconsin state average. The regional unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2 percent in the month of July and it remains lower than the state average in Wisconsin of 7.2 percent, but is slightly above the Minnesota average of 5.8 percent. The data suggests that the St. Croix Valley’s relative economic strength is due to its proximity to the twin cities.

The Wisconsin/Minnesota St. Croix Valley is comprised of St. Croix, Polk, Pierce and Dunn counties in Wisconsin and Chisago, Ramsey and Washington counties in Minnesota. All six counties are located along the Wisconsin-Minnesota border. Four of the six counties, St. Croix , Pierce, Ramsey and Washington, are included in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI metropolitan area, a 13-county region with of population of 3.25 million residents. For additional information on the September edition of the St. Croix Valley Economic Dashboard, contact Dr. Logan Kelly at cer@uwrf.edu or (715) 425-4993 or William Rubin at bill@stcroixedc.com or (715) 381-4383.

*Please note that most regional data is available with between a one and two month delay, thus the current month's dashboard will have data from previous months.

Fed Watch

The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting Wednesday August 1 with no change in its policy. They stated the following.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. . . . The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.¹

The Federal Reserve System has a responsibility to conduct policy to achieve maximum sustainable output and employment and to promote "stable" prices. These goals are prescribed in a 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act.²

This dual goal is seen by some as contradictory. They believe that unemployment and inflation tend to move in opposite directions. A contradictory and commonly held belief is that the inverse relationship is at best temporary. The real impact of monetary policy is on inflation and the impact on output and employment is at best temporary.

If you believe the inverse relationship exists, then the lack of current inflation leads you to believe the Fed should be doing more to spur the economy and reduce unemployment. If you believe the impact of inflation is important and the impact on production is temporary, you are concerned that the Fed’s recent actions will eventually lead to inflation. July 31 marked the 100^th birthday of Milton Friedman. He died in 2006. Friedman’s research led him to believe that inflation is determined by the actions of the Fed and that the Fed has very limited ability to stimulate production and reduce unemployment.

The current Fed seems to be trying to have it both ways. Since inflation is low, they are pursuing an expansionary policy and are prepared to make it more expansionary. While at the same time they say, “Don’t worry, we can reverse the policy actions quickly if inflation becomes a problem.” This is exactly the sort of belief that Milton Friedman argued against. If he is right, we are eventually headed for trouble.

1. FOMC policy statement http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120801a.htm

2. Fed policy targets http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/goals.html

Fed Watch

The FOMC held a two-day day meeting. April 24-25, to discuss the state of the economy and monetary policy and with only a slightly more optimistic view of the future, did not change policy. A number of the members of the committee believe unemployment will fall lower than they had predicted earlier in the year, despite the continued slow economic recovery. Despite this belief, the FOMC did not change its policy stance. Short term interest rates will continue at about zero. The committee reiterated their previous statement that the low interest rate policy will not change until late 2014.

The FOMC projects unemployment at about 8% at year end and they continue to believe that inflation will stay below 2%. Their position on interest rates has not changed since their March meeting. I have reproduced some of the statements from that meeting below. The FOMC is committed to keeping short and long term interest rates at record low level, despite increased criticism from Congress. There have always been members of Congress ready to criticize the Fed, but this criticism seems to be stronger in recent months. This story continues to develop.

From March 13, 2012 meeting:

The FOMC has recently clarified its position on inflation and Operation Twist. In its February 29, 2012 Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, they reiterated that the “security lengthening” known as operation twist which began in September will continue through the spring. Comparing 2007 to 2012, the Fed’s Treasury security portfolio has changed significantly. This is Operation Twist; the Fed is holding a much larger share of longer term securities and much smaller share of short term securities. It is scheduled to end in June. The effect of operation twist has been a significant reduction in long term interest rates, such as the mortgage rate being below 4%.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.